Projected National Share
Projected National Share (PNS) is a statistic used in British politics. It refers to the translation of local election results to reflect national party support in a future general election.[1] PNS shows which party has won a local election.[2] The numbers give an impression of how the political parties are faring if the entire country cast a local ballot.[3] It can be calculated in different ways.[4]
History
[edit]BBC News has calculated PNS since 1982.[5] They use key wards which are reflective of the country as a whole in order to calculate party share.[6] Two academics at the University of Plymouth, Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, calculate National Equivalent share (NEV) using a different approach.[7][8]
Author and peer Mark Pack, Baron Pack maintains a historical record named LocalBase of both sets of results.[7][9]
By local election
[edit]| Election | Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Other* | UKIP | Ref | Grn | Ref. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 31 | 30 | 15 | — | 12 | — | — | [10] |
| 2022 | 35 | 30 | 19 | 16 | — | — | — | [11] |
| 2023 | 35 | 26 | 20 | 19 | — | — | — | [12] |
| 2024 | 34 | 25 | 17 | 24 | — | — | — | [13] |
| 2025 | 20 | 15 | 17 | 7 | — | 30 | 11 | [14][15] |
*Independents, residents associations and minor parties
References
[edit]- ^ "These are the numbers to watch in the local election results". The Independent. 4 May 2023. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ "How can you tell who's won the local elections?". BBC News. 29 April 2018. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ "Local elections 2023: What do opinion polls suggest?". BBC News. 27 April 2023. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ Curtice, John; Fishe, Stephen (1 May 2025). "Understanding the Local Elections Projected National Share (PNS) in 2025". Elections Etc. Retrieved 3 May 2025.
- ^ Neame, Katie (3 May 2024). "Local election results 2024: BBC projected national share puts Labour on 34%". LabourList. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ "Curtice: Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble". BBC News. 3 May 2024. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ a b Pack, Mark (26 April 2022). "How to draw national trends from local election results: national vote share calculations". Mark Pack. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ "Local elections vote shares: the measures used to project local votes nationally are better than looking at the number of seats won or lost, but local voting does differ from general election vote intention". British Politics and Policy at LSE. 3 May 2013. Archived from the original on 21 January 2025. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ "Download LocalBase". Mark Pack website. Retrieved 4 May 2025.
- ^ "Key points of 2016 elections: At-a-glance summary". BBC News. 5 May 2016. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ "Election results 2022: Prof Sir John Curtice on what they show so far". BBC News. 6 May 2022. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ "Local election 2023: Prof Sir John Curtice on what the results mean for the parties". BBC News. 5 May 2023. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ "Local elections 2024 results in maps and charts". BBC News. 26 March 2024. Retrieved 2 May 2025.
- ^ Leigh, Suzanne (3 May 2025). "Farage hails election results, as Labour and Tories digest losses". BBC News. Retrieved 3 May 2025.
- ^ Fisher, Stephen (2 May 2025). "Local elections 2025 summary". Elections Etc. Retrieved 3 May 2025.